Verified out-of-sample
The agent's track record
Every completed 2026 World Cup match, graded honestly. The model predicts each fixture using only the results before it โ never its own outcome โ so this is a true walk-forward test of the live engine, not a curve fit. Scored on 104 matches through 2026-07-19.
Top-pick accuracy
67%
70 / 104 outcomes called right
RPS skill vs coin-flip
+42.1%
Ranked Probability Score beats a no-information 1โ3 forecast
Calibration error
4.6%
ECE โ how close stated confidence is to reality (lower is better)
Draws predicted
26%
vs 23% actual draw rate
Two independent models agree
The live engine is an Elo โ Dixon-Coles โ Monte Carlo stack in TypeScript. A completely separate ridge Dixon-Coles bivariate-Poisson model (Python, refit nightly) is leave-one-out scored on the same fixtures. When two models built differently land on the same out-of-sample skill, the number is real โ not an artefact of one pipeline.
Live TypeScript engine
Walk-forward ยท full agent stack
- RPS skill vs baseline
- +42.1%
- Top-pick accuracy
- 67%
- Calibration (ECE)
- 4.6%
- Matches graded
- 104
Ridge Dixon-Coles
Independent ยท leave-one-out
- RPS skill vs baseline
- +20.3%
- Top-pick accuracy
- 56%
- Calibration (ECE)
- 2.4%
- Matches fit
- 104
What each engine layer earns
Cumulative variants, each adding one layer. Lower RPS is better โ this is why the agent is a pipeline, not a single number.
| Model variant | RPS โ | Brier โ | Top pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| Uniform 1โ3 (baseline) | 0.239 | 0.667 | 57% |
| Calibrated Elo | 0.142 | 0.458 | 68% |
| + result learning + form | 0.145 | 0.463 | 69% |
| + injuries + tactics + bounce | 0.143 | 0.458 | 68% |
| + flat draw boost | 0.143 | 0.453 | 66% |
| + smart draw layer | 0.141 | 0.444 | 67% |
| + confidence calibration (LIVE) | 0.139 | 0.438 | 67% |
The live stack cuts RPS from 0.142 (plain Elo) to 0.139 โ a +3% improvement from the agent's learning, tactical and calibration layers.
Is it honestly confident?
When the live model says an outcome is X% likely, does it happen ~X% of the time? Closer columns = better-calibrated probabilities.
Said 00โ20%ยท 99 callshappened 7%
Said 20โ40%ยท 121 callshappened 26%
Said 40โ60%ยท 45 callshappened 56%
Said 60โ80%ยท 31 callshappened 81%
Said 80โ100%ยท 16 callshappened 94%
Expected Calibration Error: 4.6% (0% = perfect). Faint bar = predicted, bright bar = observed.
Every call, on the record
The pre-match favourite and confidence for each graded fixture, with the actual result. Filter to the misses โ they're shown, not hidden.
104 of 104
โ
๐ช๐ธSpain1โ0Argentina๐ฆ๐ท
Called Spain win @ 36% ยท Spain win
F
07-19
โ
๐ซ๐ทFrance4โ6England๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ
Called France win @ 44% ยท England win
3P
07-18
โ
๐ฆ๐ทArgentina2โ1England๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ
Called Argentina win @ 45% ยท Argentina win
SF
07-15
โ
๐ซ๐ทFrance0โ2Spain๐ช๐ธ
Called France win @ 36% ยท Spain win
SF
07-14
โ
๐ฆ๐ทArgentina3โ1Switzerland๐จ๐ญ
Called Argentina win @ 71% ยท Argentina win
QF
07-11
โ
๐ณ๐ดNorway1โ2England๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ
Called England win @ 53% ยท England win
QF
07-11
โ
๐ช๐ธSpain2โ1Belgium๐ง๐ช
Called Spain win @ 62% ยท Spain win
QF
07-10
โ
๐ซ๐ทFrance2โ0Morocco๐ฒ๐ฆ
Called France win @ 60% ยท France win
QF
07-09
โ
๐จ๐ญSwitzerland0โ0Colombia๐จ๐ด
Called Colombia win @ 46% ยท Draw ยท Switzerland adv.
R16
07-07
โ
๐ฆ๐ทArgentina3โ2Egypt๐ช๐ฌ
Called Argentina win @ 85% ยท Argentina win
R16
07-07
โ
๐บ๐ธUnited States1โ4Belgium๐ง๐ช
Called Belgium win @ 41% ยท Belgium win
R16
07-06
โ
๐ต๐นPortugal0โ1Spain๐ช๐ธ
Called Spain win @ 53% ยท Spain win
R16
07-06
โ
๐ฒ๐ฝMexico2โ3England๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ
Called England win @ 45% ยท England win
R16
07-06
โ
๐ง๐ทBrazil1โ2Norway๐ณ๐ด
Called Brazil win @ 58% ยท Norway win
R16
07-05
โ
๐ต๐พParaguay0โ1France๐ซ๐ท
Called France win @ 85% ยท France win
R16
07-04
โ
๐จ๐ฆCanada0โ3Morocco๐ฒ๐ฆ
Called Morocco win @ 62% ยท Morocco win
R16
07-04
โ
๐จ๐ดColombia1โ0Ghana๐ฌ๐ญ
Called Colombia win @ 72% ยท Colombia win
R32
07-04
โ
๐ฆ๐บAustralia1โ1Egypt๐ช๐ฌ
Called Australia win @ 43% ยท Draw ยท Egypt adv.
R32
07-03
โ
๐ฆ๐ทArgentina3โ2Cape Verde๐จ๐ป
Called Argentina win @ 87% ยท Argentina win
R32
07-03
โ
๐จ๐ญSwitzerland2โ0Algeria๐ฉ๐ฟ
Called Switzerland win @ 56% ยท Switzerland win
R32
07-03
โ
๐ต๐นPortugal2โ1Croatia๐ญ๐ท
Called Portugal win @ 42% ยท Portugal win
R32
07-02
โ
๐ช๐ธSpain3โ0Austria๐ฆ๐น
Called Spain win @ 77% ยท Spain win
R32
07-02
โ
๐บ๐ธUnited States2โ0Bosnia & Herzegovina๐ง๐ฆ
Called United States win @ 71% ยท United States win
R32
07-01
โ
๐ง๐ชBelgium3โ2Senegal๐ธ๐ณ
Called Belgium win @ 43% ยท Belgium win
R32
07-01
โ
๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟEngland2โ1DR Congo๐จ๐ฉ
Called England win @ 75% ยท England win
R32
07-01
โ
๐ฒ๐ฝMexico2โ0Ecuador๐ช๐จ
Called Mexico win @ 55% ยท Mexico win
R32
06-30
โ
๐จ๐ฎIvory Coast1โ2Norway๐ณ๐ด
Called Norway win @ 50% ยท Norway win
R32
06-30
โ
๐ซ๐ทFrance3โ0Sweden๐ธ๐ช
Called France win @ 82% ยท France win
R32
06-30
โ
๐ง๐ทBrazil2โ1Japan๐ฏ๐ต
Called Brazil win @ 61% ยท Brazil win
R32
06-29
โ
๐ณ๐ฑNetherlands1โ1Morocco๐ฒ๐ฆ
Called Netherlands win @ 40% ยท Draw ยท Morocco adv.
R32
06-29
โ
๐ฉ๐ชGermany1โ1Paraguay๐ต๐พ
Called Germany win @ 66% ยท Draw ยท Paraguay adv.
R32
06-29
โ
๐ฟ๐ฆSouth Africa0โ1Canada๐จ๐ฆ
Called Canada win @ 57% ยท Canada win
R32
06-28
โ
๐ญ๐ทCroatia2โ1Ghana๐ฌ๐ญ
Called Croatia win @ 60% ยท Croatia win
Grp L
06-27
โ
๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟEngland2โ0Panama๐ต๐ฆ
Called England win @ 87% ยท England win
Grp L
06-27
โ
๐จ๐ฉDR Congo3โ1Uzbekistan๐บ๐ฟ
Called DR Congo win @ 54% ยท DR Congo win
Grp K
06-27
โ
๐ต๐นPortugal0โ0Colombia๐จ๐ด
Called Portugal win @ 35% ยท Draw
Grp K
06-27
โ
๐ฉ๐ฟAlgeria3โ3Austria๐ฆ๐น
Called Austria win @ 47% ยท Draw
Grp J
06-27
โ
๐ฆ๐ทArgentina3โ1Jordan๐ฏ๐ด
Called Argentina win @ 91% ยท Argentina win
Grp J
06-27
โ
๐ธ๐ณSenegal5โ0Iraq๐ฎ๐ถ
Called Senegal win @ 69% ยท Senegal win
Grp I
06-26
โ
๐ซ๐ทFrance4โ1Norway๐ณ๐ด
Called France win @ 65% ยท France win
Grp I
06-26
โ
๐จ๐ปCape Verde0โ0Saudi Arabia๐ธ๐ฆ
Called Draw @ 37% ยท Draw
Grp H
06-26
โ
๐ช๐ธSpain1โ0Uruguay๐บ๐พ
Called Spain win @ 70% ยท Spain win
Grp H
06-26
โ
๐ช๐ฌEgypt1โ1Iran๐ฎ๐ท
Called Iran win @ 37% ยท Draw
Grp G
06-26
โ
๐ง๐ชBelgium5โ1New Zealand๐ณ๐ฟ
Called Belgium win @ 74% ยท Belgium win
Grp G
06-26
โ
๐น๐ณTunisia1โ3Netherlands๐ณ๐ฑ
Called Netherlands win @ 80% ยท Netherlands win
Grp F
06-25
โ
๐ฏ๐ตJapan1โ1Sweden๐ธ๐ช
Called Japan win @ 48% ยท Draw
Grp F
06-25
โ
๐ช๐จEcuador2โ1Germany๐ฉ๐ช
Called Germany win @ 64% ยท Ecuador win
Grp E
06-25
โ
๐จ๐ผCuraรงao0โ2Ivory Coast๐จ๐ฎ
Called Ivory Coast win @ 71% ยท Ivory Coast win
Grp E
06-25
โ
๐ต๐พParaguay0โ0Australia๐ฆ๐บ
Called Australia win @ 51% ยท Draw
Grp D
06-25
โ
๐น๐ทTรผrkiye3โ2United States๐บ๐ธ
Called United States win @ 59% ยท Tรผrkiye win
Grp D
06-25
โ
๐ฒ๐ฆMorocco4โ2Haiti๐ญ๐น
Called Morocco win @ 88% ยท Morocco win
Grp C
06-24
โ
๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ณ๓ ฃ๓ ด๓ ฟScotland0โ3Brazil๐ง๐ท
Called Brazil win @ 84% ยท Brazil win
Grp C
06-24
โ
๐ง๐ฆBosnia & Herzegovina3โ1Qatar๐ถ๐ฆ
Called Draw @ 34% ยท Bosnia & Herzegovina win
Grp B
06-24
โ
๐จ๐ญSwitzerland2โ1Canada๐จ๐ฆ
Called Switzerland win @ 38% ยท Switzerland win
Grp B
06-24
โ
๐ฟ๐ฆSouth Africa1โ0South Korea๐ฐ๐ท
Called South Korea win @ 65% ยท South Africa win
Grp A
06-24
โ
๐จ๐ฟCzech Republic0โ3Mexico๐ฒ๐ฝ
Called Mexico win @ 80% ยท Mexico win
Grp A
06-24
โ
๐ญ๐ทCroatia1โ0Panama๐ต๐ฆ
Called Croatia win @ 80% ยท Croatia win
Grp L
06-23
โ
๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟEngland0โ0Ghana๐ฌ๐ญ
Called England win @ 84% ยท Draw
Grp L
06-23
โ
๐จ๐ฉDR Congo0โ1Colombia๐จ๐ด
Called Colombia win @ 55% ยท Colombia win
Grp K
06-23
โ
๐ต๐นPortugal5โ0Uzbekistan๐บ๐ฟ
Called Portugal win @ 79% ยท Portugal win
Grp K
06-23
โ
๐ฉ๐ฟAlgeria2โ1Jordan๐ฏ๐ด
Called Algeria win @ 58% ยท Algeria win
Grp J
06-22
โ
๐ฆ๐ทArgentina2โ0Austria๐ฆ๐น
Called Argentina win @ 75% ยท Argentina win
Grp J
06-22
โ
๐ธ๐ณSenegal2โ3Norway๐ณ๐ด
Called Norway win @ 35% ยท Norway win
Grp I
06-22
โ
๐ซ๐ทFrance3โ0Iraq๐ฎ๐ถ
Called France win @ 88% ยท France win
Grp I
06-22
โ
๐ช๐ฌEgypt3โ1New Zealand๐ณ๐ฟ
Called Egypt win @ 47% ยท Egypt win
Grp G
06-21
โ
๐ง๐ชBelgium0โ0Iran๐ฎ๐ท
Called Belgium win @ 44% ยท Draw
Grp G
06-21
โ
๐จ๐ปCape Verde2โ2Uruguay๐บ๐พ
Called Uruguay win @ 50% ยท Draw
Grp H
06-21
โ
๐ช๐ธSpain4โ0Saudi Arabia๐ธ๐ฆ
Called Spain win @ 83% ยท Spain win
Grp H
06-21
โ
๐ฏ๐ตJapan4โ0Tunisia๐น๐ณ
Called Japan win @ 64% ยท Japan win
Grp F
06-20
โ
๐ณ๐ฑNetherlands5โ1Sweden๐ธ๐ช
Called Netherlands win @ 61% ยท Netherlands win
Grp F
06-20
โ
๐จ๐ผCuraรงao0โ0Ecuador๐ช๐จ
Called Ecuador win @ 72% ยท Draw
Grp E
06-20
โ
๐ฉ๐ชGermany2โ1Ivory Coast๐จ๐ฎ
Called Germany win @ 59% ยท Germany win
Grp E
06-20
โ
๐น๐ทTรผrkiye0โ1Paraguay๐ต๐พ
Called Tรผrkiye win @ 53% ยท Paraguay win
Grp D
06-19
โ
๐ง๐ทBrazil3โ0Haiti๐ญ๐น
Called Brazil win @ 89% ยท Brazil win
Grp C
06-19
โ
๐บ๐ธUnited States2โ0Australia๐ฆ๐บ
Called United States win @ 42% ยท United States win
Grp D
06-19
โ
๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ณ๓ ฃ๓ ด๓ ฟScotland0โ1Morocco๐ฒ๐ฆ
Called Morocco win @ 78% ยท Morocco win
Grp C
06-19
โ
๐จ๐ฆCanada6โ0Qatar๐ถ๐ฆ
Called Canada win @ 57% ยท Canada win
Grp B
06-18
โ
๐จ๐ญSwitzerland4โ1Bosnia & Herzegovina๐ง๐ฆ
Called Switzerland win @ 65% ยท Switzerland win
Grp B
06-18
โ
๐ฒ๐ฝMexico1โ0South Korea๐ฐ๐ท
Called Mexico win @ 51% ยท Mexico win
Grp A
06-18
โ
๐จ๐ฟCzech Republic1โ1South Africa๐ฟ๐ฆ
Called Czech Republic win @ 39% ยท Draw
Grp A
06-18
โ
๐ฌ๐ญGhana1โ0Panama๐ต๐ฆ
Called Draw @ 37% ยท Ghana win
Grp L
06-17
โ
๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟEngland4โ2Croatia๐ญ๐ท
Called England win @ 47% ยท England win
Grp L
06-17
โ
๐บ๐ฟUzbekistan1โ3Colombia๐จ๐ด
Called Colombia win @ 66% ยท Colombia win
Grp K
06-17
โ
๐ต๐นPortugal1โ1DR Congo๐จ๐ฉ
Called Portugal win @ 54% ยท Draw
Grp K
06-17
โ
๐ฆ๐นAustria3โ1Jordan๐ฏ๐ด
Called Austria win @ 69% ยท Austria win
Grp J
06-16
โ
๐ฆ๐ทArgentina3โ0Algeria๐ฉ๐ฟ
Called Argentina win @ 83% ยท Argentina win
Grp J
06-16
โ
๐ฎ๐ถIraq1โ4Norway๐ณ๐ด
Called Norway win @ 63% ยท Norway win
Grp I
06-16
โ
๐ซ๐ทFrance3โ1Senegal๐ธ๐ณ
Called France win @ 63% ยท France win
Grp I
06-16
โ
๐ธ๐ฆSaudi Arabia1โ1Uruguay๐บ๐พ
Called Uruguay win @ 54% ยท Draw
Grp H
06-15
โ
๐ช๐ธSpain0โ0Cape Verde๐จ๐ป
Called Spain win @ 79% ยท Draw
Grp H
06-15
โ
๐ฎ๐ทIran2โ2New Zealand๐ณ๐ฟ
Called Iran win @ 57% ยท Draw
Grp G
06-15
โ
๐ง๐ชBelgium1โ1Egypt๐ช๐ฌ
Called Belgium win @ 53% ยท Draw
Grp G
06-15
โ
๐ธ๐ชSweden5โ1Tunisia๐น๐ณ
Called Sweden win @ 39% ยท Sweden win
Grp F
06-14
โ
๐ณ๐ฑNetherlands2โ2Japan๐ฏ๐ต
Called Netherlands win @ 46% ยท Draw
Grp F
06-14
โ
๐จ๐ฎIvory Coast1โ0Ecuador๐ช๐จ
Called Draw @ 36% ยท Ivory Coast win
Grp E
06-14
โ
๐ฉ๐ชGermany7โ1Curaรงao๐จ๐ผ
Called Germany win @ 83% ยท Germany win
Grp E
06-14
โ
๐ฆ๐บAustralia2โ0Tรผrkiye๐น๐ท
Called Draw @ 32% ยท Australia win
Grp D
06-13
โ
๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ณ๓ ฃ๓ ด๓ ฟScotland1โ0Haiti๐ญ๐น
Called Scotland win @ 49% ยท Scotland win
Grp C
06-13
โ
๐ง๐ทBrazil1โ1Morocco๐ฒ๐ฆ
Called Brazil win @ 42% ยท Draw
Grp C
06-13
โ
๐ถ๐ฆQatar1โ1Switzerland๐จ๐ญ
Called Switzerland win @ 60% ยท Draw
Grp B
06-13
โ
๐บ๐ธUnited States4โ1Paraguay๐ต๐พ
Called United States win @ 58% ยท United States win
Grp D
06-12
โ
๐จ๐ฆCanada1โ1Bosnia & Herzegovina๐ง๐ฆ
Called Canada win @ 61% ยท Draw
Grp B
06-12
โ
๐ฐ๐ทSouth Korea2โ1Czech Republic๐จ๐ฟ
Called South Korea win @ 52% ยท South Korea win
Grp A
06-11
โ
๐ฒ๐ฝMexico2โ0South Africa๐ฟ๐ฆ
Called Mexico win @ 78% ยท Mexico win
Grp A
06-11
Numbers recompute from the results file on every load. RPS (Ranked Probability Score) is the football-forecasting standard โ it rewards getting the home โ draw โ away order right, not just the exact bucket. Verified out-of-sample; no result is used to predict itself.